The Inflation Endgame: What Happens After the Last Hike

Disinflation without a recession — so far

Supply chains healed, energy prices normalised, and headline inflation has retreated to targets across most of the developed world. That is the good news.

The bill is deferred: higher real debt loads, squeezed margins and a consumer that has quietly traded down. The debate now is whether soft-landing rhetoric survives the rate-cut cycle.